Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Slower but Stronger than Expected

Giacomo Lanfiuti Baldi , La Sapienza - Università di Roma

"Is life expectancy approaching its limit?" asked Oeppen and Vaupel in their 2002 milestone Science paper. Back then, record life expectancy had risen linearly since 1840, showing no sign of slowing. Twenty years later, extending the series to the most complete data up to 2024 reveals a different picture: progress continues, but the linear rise has flattened. This has fueled speculation that human longevity is nearing a ceiling. Yet, by examining the full distribution of ages at death, we show that mortality improvements remain strong, driven by survival gains at older ages. Longevity is not ending, only changing: its rise is slower, but stronger.

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 Presented in Session P5. Health, Mortality, and Ageing 1