The Realisation of Fertility Intentions among Canadian Women Using Longitudinal Linked Data and a Life Course Approach

Benoît Laplante , Centre UCS de l'INRS
Julie Blouin, Université du Québec à Montréal

This study examines the realisation of fertility intentions among Canadian women using longitudinal data linking the 2011 General Social Survey with administrative records. Fertility in Canada has remained below replacement level for decades, with a total fertility rate of 1.25 in 2024. We show that while inten-tions to have children generally predict short-term outcomes, their realisation varies by parity, age, educa-tion, and conjugal status. Births often occur within three years of stated intentions, especially among mothers of one child. In contrast, childless women and mothers of two show more diverse patterns. Unintended births represent a substantial share of total births, particularly among mothers of two, where they account for 60% of births by 2017—reflecting the low proportion of women in this group who had intended to have another child. Age-specific fertility rates show that educational attainment influences both timing and intensity of fer-tility. For example, childless women with higher education tend to have children later. Regression analyses reveal that unemployment increases birth risk across all groups, having a partner raises it for childless women and mothers of two, and poor health lowers it for mothers but not for childless women. Income effects vary by parity. Overall, the study highlights the complexity of reproductive decision-making and the limitations of re-lying solely on stated intentions. It demonstrates the value of using linked longitudinal data to analyse parity-specific patterns and to model the non-linear influence of age on birth hazard—an approach not previously applied in the Canadian context.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2