Climate Change Narratives and Fertility Preferences: A Survey Experiment in Belgium and Italy

Sara Bisi , KU Leuven
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Jan Van Bavel, University of Leuven (KU Leuven)

Climate change compels families to navigate new realities and adapt to evolving environmental conditions. When deciding whether and when to have children, prospective parents attempt to anticipate the risks and opportunities they may face. In the context of a rapidly changing climate, such considerations become even more uncertain and precarious. This study investigates how narratives about the future of climate change influence fertility preferences. Building on the Narrative Framework, which emphasises the role of imagined futures in shaping reproductive decision-making, we examine whether exposure to different climate scenarios affects short-term desires, intentions, and expectations around childbearing. In the experiment, respondents are presented with either an optimistic or a pessimistic scenario describing future climate conditions in relation to policy actions and technological advances. Comparing these groups with a control group that received no scenario allows us to identify how different narratives shape fertility-related preferences. Preliminary findings from earlier research suggest that pessimistic climate scenarios tend to reduce fertility desires, whereas optimistic narratives increased them only among Belgian respondents, possibly reflecting differences in perceived credibility and trust in policy effectiveness. The current study expands on this work through a large-scale, between-subjects experimental survey involving 8,000 participants aged 20-40 in Belgium and Northern-Central Italy. The online survey combines experimental exposure with various measures of fertility preferences, climate change perceptions, and socio-demographic characteristics.

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 Presented in Session P34. Environment, Fertility and Mobility