Change in the Seasonality of fertility in 20 European Countries From 1950 To 2019

Risto Conte Keivabu , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Marco Cozzani, University of Firenze
Peter Fallesen, Rockwool Foundation

The seasonality of human fertility, a phenomenon observed worldwide, reflects complex interplays of individual and societal factors. However, significant societal shifts over recent decades might have reshaped these seasonal birth trends. Existing research has noted a diminishing amplitude in fertility seasonality over time, but the predominant birth timings over time remain under-explored. This study bridges this gap by analyzing monthly birth data from 20 European countries spanning 1950 to 2020 and analyses changes in seasonality of fertility. Our findings reveal a marked shift in peak birth seasons from spring to late summer, occurring gradually yet consistently across various European regions. This pronounced shift not only shows a significant transformation in the seasonality of births, but also differences between European regions prompting critical questions about the underlying drivers of these trends. Such insights are critical to understand the evolving dynamics of human fertility in response to changing societal contexts.

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 Presented in Session 113. Patterns and Components of Fertility Change