Accelerated Fertility Decline and Postponed Recuperation – Analysis of Recent Fertility Trends by Age of Mother and Birth Order in 2018–2023

Krystof Zeman , Vienna Institute of Demography
Maria Winkler-Dworak, Vienna Institute of Demography

We analyse fertility data from the Human Fertility Database, including more recent, yet unpublished data, to investigate the recent declines in fertility by age and birth order across 22 highly developed countries. In a period marked by global warming and successive shocks, such as the COVID pandemic, the Russian invasion into Ukraine, and economic downturns, fertility dynamics have shifted considerably. The updated database allows a comprehensive, more detailed and up-to-date assessment of fertility trends across diverse national contexts. While a few single-country studies have examined age and birth order changes in fertility in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, systematic cross-national evidence remains scarce. Our study contributes to filling that gap by analyzing age-specific fertility rates by birth order in the context of multiple overlapping crises. It addresses four main questions: (1) Which age groups have experienced the strongest fertility declines? (2) Are there any signs of recuperation at older ages? (3) Do regional differences in the magnitude and structure of the declines emerge? (4) Do the observed fertility changes follow previous trends or deviate from them? Preliminary results indicate that fertility decline has occurred in all regions, all birth orders, and age groups up to age 35. So far, there is little or no evidence of recuperation, suggesting a stalled or “postponed recuperation”. Regional variations are substantial, with particularly pronounced reductions in countries neighboring Russia and Ukraine. Finally, the course of fertility rates by age groups and birth orders show clear disruption from the previous trends.

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 Presented in Session 95. Fertility Responses to War and Crisis