Changes in Childbearing Intentions by Partnership Status in Sweden:Developments of the Early 2010s to Early 2020s

Livia Olah, Stockholm University, Dept. of Sociology
Glenn Sandstrom , Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR), Umeå University
Gerda Neyer, Stockholm University Demography Unit

The assumed importance of partnership status for childbearing provides the rationale for this paper. We seek to contribute to an explanation of the ongoing Swedish fertility decline by exploring i) how short-term childbearing intentions changed across partnership statuses in the 2010s; ii) whether uncertainty for longer-term childbearing plans increased and for which partnership statuses, and iii) how individuals’ reflections about the importance of a partner for childbearing changed. We analyze data on childless women and men aged 24-44 from the Swedish GGS 2012 and 2021 along with in-depth interviews conducted in 2012 and 2022. Our mixed- and multi-methods research design combines binomial and multinomial logistic regression models and text analyses. The findings for short-term intentions suggest that partnership uncertainty reduces intentions among the most disadvantaged men (lower-educated, foreign-born, not in paid work and students). Among women, mainly those with a partner exhibit lower intentions in 2021 independently of educational level, employment status and, except for foreign-born LATs, ethnic origin. Combining short- and long-term intentions we find again evidence of partnership uncertainty reducing especially men’s intentions in 2021. The interviews in turn reveal an increasing uncertainty about relationships enduring along with growing expectations of gender equal parenting by the early 2020s, a recognition that neither member of a couple wants to have children, and an emerging view of a partner not being necessary for childbearing. Hence (living with) a partner seems to be less of a guarantee for positive fertility intentions by the early 2020s.

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 Presented in Session 116. Life-Course Determinants of Fertility Intentions and Realization