Radicalized Political Climate and Fertility

Chiara Ludovica Comolli, University of Bologna
Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University Demography Unit
Oskar Lindstrom, Stockholm University Demography Unit
Gerda Neyer , Stockholm University Demography Unit

The timing of fertility declines in developed societies during the last decade prompted scholars to associate it with the Great Recession of 2008. However, the persistence of fertility declines during the 2010s suggests that other developments, maybe triggered or intensified by the crisis, may have influenced fertility behavior. Here, we investigate if and how the polarization of the local political climate and growing support for right-wing populist parties in the community may have affected childbearing trends. Our analysis focuses on Sweden, where the vote share of the radical right party, the Sweden Democrats, increased sixfold between 2006 and 2018, while fertility rates have declined by more than 20 percent between 2006 and 2024. We use the 2003-2024 population register data to construct complete individual-level fertility histories and link women to the Sweden Democrats’ share of votes in their municipality of residence in the elections that were held in 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018. We estimate discrete-time event history models for first, second, and third childbirth risks, controlling for individual-level demographic and socioeconomic known determinants of fertility behavior, and for municipality characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that the role of voter support for the Sweden Democrats is fairly weak, but that immigrants who live in municipalities with greater support for the Sweden Democrats have an elevated risk of having a(nother) child.

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 Presented in Session 15. Fertility: Trends and Patterns