Exposure to Local Violent Crime and Abortion, Miscarriage, and Stillbirth in Mexico

Signe Svallfors , Stockholm University
Mónica L. Caudillo, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland College Park
Orsola Torrisi, Department of Sociology, McGill University

Violence and insecurity have substantial consequences for reproductive health, yet little is known about how local violent crime affects reproductive decision-making and well-being during pregnancy. This study focuses on abortion, miscarriage, and stillbirth in Mexico, where the War on Drugs policy has resulted in a dramatic surge in crime. We combine individual-level nationally representative surveys on women’s experiences of pregnancy loss and termination (n = 70,519), administrative data from fetal death certificates (n = 32,736), and monthly municipality-level homicide rates based on cause-of-death registers in municipality-fixed effects models. We control for potential confounding factors at both individual and local levels and investigate heterogeneous effects using an intersectional approach. Individual-level models show a modest positive association between local crime exposure during the first trimester and the probability of pregnancy loss and termination. Poisson models reveal a negative association between local violent crime and the number of registered fetal deaths. Our findings suggest the most fragile pregnancies are miscarried or terminated at higher rates in more crime-affected municipalities, resulting in fewer stillbirths.

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 Presented in Session P69. Environment, Conflicts and Population Dynamics