The Impact of EU Structural Funds on the Transition to Parenthood: Evidence from the UK

Xhiselda Demaj , University of Bologna
Chiara Ludovica Comolli, University of Bologna

This paper investigates whether large-scale regional policies can influence individual fertility behaviour. We analyse the impact of EU Objective 1 funding — allocated through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) — on the probability of conception among women in the United Kingdom. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) between 1991–2016, we estimate a standard difference-in-differences design that exploits variation in regional eligibility before and after the 2000 funding cycle. Our results show that exposure to Objective 1 funding increased conception probabilities by around 2–2.3 percentage points. The effects are robust across different specifications. Heterogeneity analyses show that fertility responses are stronger among women with a high school education and those employed in intermediate or technical occupations. These results demonstrate that regional development policies can influence family formation decisions, particularly among middle socioeconomic groups who may be most sensitive to improvements in local economic opportunities. By linking EU regional funding to fertility outcomes, this study provides novel evidence on the evaluation of cohesion policy beyond standard economic outcomes and highlights its potential demographic implications.

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 Presented in Session P1. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 1