Friends, Free Time, and Fairness: A Factorial Survey Experiment on Peer Effects, Leisure Constraints, and Gender Asymmetry in Spanish Fertility Intentions

Erin Wingerter , Institute for Culture and Society, Universidad de Navarra
Javier García-Manglano, Institute for Culture and Society, Universidad de Navarra

Spain's record-high maternal age at first birth and persistent lowest-low fertility highlight the need to understand the micro-foundations of childbearing intentions. While economic factors are recognized, less is known about how peers, leisure constraints, and gendered couple dynamics shape the decision to become a parent in Spain. Using a nationally representative sample of 1,009 women aged 25–36, we deploy a factorial survey experiment in which participants evaluate nine vignettes systematically varying peer parenthood, leisure limitations, and asymmetries in partner's fertility desire and anticipated career sacrifice. Multilevel modeling reveals the relative impact of these factors while controlling for sociodemographics. We advance the literature by providing the first experimental causal evidence on (1) whether close friends' childbearing influences Spanish women's fertility intentions, (2) how anticipated loss of leisure deters first births, and (3) how gendered asymmetries within couples penalize fertility intentions. Findings hold timely implications for theory and policy in low-fertility contexts.

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 Presented in Session 67. Fertility and Gender Roles