The distribution of reproduction during a fertility transition: Declining spread of parenthood in Brazil

Ewa Batyra , University of Oxford
Ben Wilson, Stockholm University

A fertility transition is defined broadly as the process of population change from high levels of childbearing to lower levels. Demographers have a rich understanding of the fertility transitions that have been observed in many contexts across the globe. Yet, we lack evidence to show whether long-run declines in fertility levels are accompanied by simultaneous changes in reproductive variability. This is an important gap because reproductive variability—the concentration and dispersion of childbearing—may help demographers to better explain fertility trends and predict population change. Here, we address this gap with an empirical case study of Brazil, which is a well-known and well-researched example of a fertility transition, with available microdata on fertility by education for cohorts of women born from 1910-70. We contribute new knowledge using multiple measures of variability in levels of completed fertility. We study how these measures change over time during an entire fertility transition, how they relate to cohort fertility rates, and how this evidence varies by education. In general, reproductive variability declines across the Brazilian fertility transition—for measures of concentration and dispersion—although this is less evident when using a measure of dispersion that adjusts for levels of children ever born. We also find considerable heterogeneity by education, as well as evidence that several measures of variability are predictive of fertility decline, highlighting a promising avenue for future research. In addition, our findings suggest that conclusions based on one measure of reproductive variability may only provide a partial understanding of population dynamics.

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 Presented in Session 113. Patterns and Components of Fertility Change