War Next Door, Births at Home: Decomposing the 2019–2024 Fertility Decline in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia

Krzysztof Tymicki , Warsaw School of Economics

Between 2019 and 2024, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia experienced the steepest fertility declines in Europe, coinciding with two overlapping shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical destabilization following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This study investigates whether the observed decrease in Total Fertility Rates reflects structural demographic changes or behavioral responses to compounded uncertainty. Using vital statistics disaggregated by age and parity, we apply Kitagawa and Das Gupta decomposition methods to separate shifts in population composition from changes in within-group fertility behavior. Tempo-adjusted indicators (Bongaarts–Feeney) are employed to distinguish postponement from quantum effects. A counterfactual event-study framework compares post-2022 fertility trajectories to pre-crisis trends and to two comparison groups: Western European countries, characterized by higher institutional stability and slower fertility decline, and Central European countries with similar demographic legacies but lower geopolitical exposure. This design enables the identification of region-specific behavioral shifts associated with proximity to conflict and differential recovery from pandemic-related disruptions. Preliminary results for Poland suggest that behavioral components—particularly reductions in first-birth rates among women aged 25–34—account for the majority of the fertility decline, while structural changes play a secondary role. By quantifying the joint demographic effects of the pandemic and the war, and situating the Baltic and Polish experiences within a broader European context, this study provides one of the first integrated decompositions of fertility responses to sequential global and regional shocks, offering new insights into how overlapping crises reshape reproductive behavior and demographic resilience in Europe’s eastern frontier.

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 Presented in Session 95. Fertility Responses to War and Crisis