Economic Cycle and Second Childbirth: A Couple-Level Perspective

Kristina Dorofeeva , University of Florence
Pau Baizan, Universität Pompeu Fabra

This study examines how couple-level employment configurations shape second childbirth probabilities, focusing on the gendered dimensions of labour market instability. Using longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC, 2004–2023), we focus on Italy and Spain — two countries characterised by familialistic welfare regimes, strong gender norms, and persistent employment precariousness. Logistic regression event history models assess how each partner’s employment — distinguishing between permanent and temporary contracts — shapes second childbirth probabilities, and how regional female labour force participation rates moderate these relationships. Findings reveal contrasting country patterns. In Spain, dual permanent employment is the configuration most strongly associated with second-birth transitions, and male instability carries a stronger negative effect than female instability, reflecting persistent male-breadwinner expectations. In Italy, by contrast, dual permanent employment does not emerge as the most fertility-enhancing configuration; instead, couples where the woman is inactive and the man holds a permanent contract display the highest second-birth probabilities. Male instability shows no significant negative effect in Italy, while women’s temporary employment is the principal penalty — a pattern consistent with a familialistic logic in which women’s labour market withdrawal enables family expansion. Across both countries, women’s temporary contracts are more detrimental than unemployment, and the positive association between women’s inactivity and second births has weakened over time as dual-earner norms spread. The findings highlight the importance of analysing couples and call for labour and family policies that reduce employment precarity and support work–family reconciliation in both countries.

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 Presented in Session 77. Flash Session Fertility, Economic Conditions and Inequality