Aligning Historical Data: Harmonizing Under-5 Mortality Records in Türkiye across the 20th Century

Sahin Bingöl , Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies
Alanur Çavlin, Hacettepe University
Ahmet Sinan Türkyilmaz, Hacettepe University
Michel Guillot, INED

This study presents a comprehensive harmonization of historical under-five mortality data in Türkiye spanning the years 1923 to 2008, with a particular emphasis on provincial-level analysis. Drawing from diverse sources—including population censuses, sample surveys, and vital registration systems—the research addresses inconsistencies in age categorization, reporting frequency, and regional coverage that have hindered longitudinal demographic analysis. These challenges were systematically resolved through digitization, reclassification, and model integration. Mortality data were standardized based on the 22 under-five age categories, enabling consistent trend analysis across decades and across provinces. Population data were harmonized using national census records and United Nations estimates to fill gaps in zero-age population figures. Advanced statistical modeling techniques were employed to estimate missing provincial-level data, ensuring both spatial and temporal continuity. Throughout the process, manual verification, optical character recognition (OCR), and statistical software integration were used to safeguard data integrity and replicability. The resulting harmonized dataset supports robust mortality rate calculations and facilitates integration with contemporary demographic models. By aligning historical records with modern standards—at both national and sub-national levels—this project enhances the reliability of child mortality estimates and contributes to evidence-based public health planning. Ultimately, the study underscores the importance of methodological rigor and data consistency in shaping effective health and social policy interventions, while offering a replicable framework for future research in historical data integration.

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 Presented in Session 78. Assessing and Improving the Quality of Mortality Data