Bounce Back or Spiral down: Mortality Crises and Population Change

Serena Vigezzi , Cpop - University of Southern Denmark

Studies on the consequences of mortality crises have largely focused on their short-term impact, but some research has shown potential influence on long-term population outcomes. In this work, I will study such long-term consequences on local population change, in a comparative perspective. I will analyse three mortality crises, one epidemic and two famines, in Denmark, Sweden and Finland. I will use datasets based on historical parish data, and information from the censuses to reconstruct time series of local population sizes, using the balancing equation and the Generalised Inverse Projection method. This will allow me to estimate how long after the crisis the population size and growth rate of a local population reached pre-crisis levels. I will also investigate the contribution of mortality, fertility and migration to population change, using the balancing equation or a modified Kitagawa decomposition, which accounts for the age structure. Finally, by comparing actual population trends to a counterfactual time-series without a crisis, I will be able to assess whether local populations managed not only to reach pre-crisis population levels, but also pre-crisis trajectories. Because this topic has not been thoroughly investigated before, potential outcomes vary. It is possible that a mortality crisis would depress opportunities in an area, leading to higher emigration and lower fertility. Alternatively, a crisis could create opportunities for the survivors, attracting immigration and encouraging higher fertility. By confronting what happened in three different, yet comparable situations, I aim to offer a basis for future exploration of the subject.

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 Presented in Session 24. Mortality, Inequality and Population Dynamics in Historical Perspective