Hidden Instability: Is What We Know about Same-Sex Couples’ Union Stability True?

Maaike van der Vleuten, Netherlands Interdisciplinary demographic institute
Christian Fang , Statistics Netherlands

Short abstract EPC Hidden Instability: Rethinking Same-Sex Couples’ Union Stability Using Population Register Data from the Netherlands Previous research suggests that same-sex couples—especially female couples—are less stable than different-sex couples, but existing studies rely almost exclusively on marriages and registered partnerships. Using Dutch population register data that also capture cohabiting couples, this study provides the first population-level evidence on the stability of both formal and informal same-sex unions. Just like previous studies on formal unions, our analyses (discrete-time logistic regression models & sequence analyses) show that female same-sex couples have the highest divorce risks. However, when cohabitation is included, male same-sex couples emerge as the most unstable overall, since much of their separation occurs within unregistered cohabitation. In contrast, different-sex couples are more likely to formalize their unions and remain together. These findings demonstrate that focusing only on legal unions hides a large share of instability among same-sex couples. They highlight the importance of considering cohabitation in demographic analyses and underscore the importance of including all union forms in demographic analyses.

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 Presented in Session 72. LGBTQIA+ Life Course Transitions and Trajectories