The Three 2010-2020 Fertility Puzzles

Teodora Maksimovic, Pompeu Fabra University
Gosta Esping-Andersen , Bocconi University

This study investigates the reasons behind the sudden fertility decline in many Western countries after 2010 and explores the contrasting fertility trends within another group of European countries. In the 2010-20 decade, several countries with previously stable and high fertility rates experienced sharp declines, while others saw stable or increasing birth rates. Why fertility dropped abruptly in some contexts, why they experienced no recovery, and why the opposite prevailed in other contexts constitute three demographic puzzles. Prior research has focused exclusively on fertility-drop countries, thus limiting insights that may derive from comparisons. We begin with macro-level analyses of 29 European and Western countries, exploring plausible fertility drivers over the 2000-2020 period. We subsequently analyze micro-level data from Generations and Gender Surveys. We explore changes in the probability and timing of partnership formation and the transition to parenthood, as well as childlessness at age 40 among women in the decades pre-post 2010, with particular attention to differences by educational level. Fertility-drop countries appear to have departed decisively from pro-cyclicality. The fertility decline is primarily driven by lower-educated individuals, who exhibit pronounced partnership and fertility postponement. Conversely, in countries with stable or rising fertility, lower-educated groups experienced notable fertility recovery in tandem with economic recovery after the Great Recession. The interaction between partnering and childbearing among the lower-educated is key to understanding the divergent fertility trends across affluent societies after 2010.

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 Presented in Session 15. Fertility: Trends and Patterns