The Role of Religiosity and Family Values in the Context of the Second Demographic Transition in Kazakhstan.

Kanat Islambekov , Nazarbayev University
Vladimir Kozlov, Nazarbayev University
Konstantin Kazenin, Stockholm University

Kazakhstan represents a demographic outlier among post-Soviet states, experiencing a sustained fertility recovery since the late 1990s while most of the region stagnated at sub-replacement levels. This paper examines how religiosity, and value orientations shape fertility outcomes in Kazakhstan using data from the 2018 Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). Poisson and Cox regression models show that Muslims consistently report more children than non-Muslims, even after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Religiosity has a non-linear effect as modest levels already raise fertility among Muslims, while religiosity has no effect for non-Muslims. Value orientations exert distinct influences: family-support norms increase fertility, especially for Muslims, whereas gender egalitarianism reduces fertility across groups. These findings demonstrate that Kazakhstan’s demographic trajectory is sustained by a combination of Muslim identity, kinship-based family values, and selective adoption of modern norms, providing new boundaries of the Second Demographic Transition framework in non-Western contexts.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2