Explaining the Recent Rise in Infant Mortality in France

Nikita Kupska , Institut National d’Études Démographiques (INED), Université Paris and L’École des Hautes Études en Démographie (HED)

After decades of steady progress, France is facing an unprecedented rise in infant mortality. Between 2010 and 2024, the infant mortality rate increased from 3,5 to 4,1 per thousand live births. This trend contrasts with the substantial progress observed in many European countries and has been mainly driven by an increase in deaths occurring within the first month of life, and specifically within the first week. To this day, the factors driving this increase have not been identified due to critical gaps in health data in France and the lack of essential medical information on general infant death certificates. However, one important exception is the neonatal death certificate, which is mandatory for all infants who die within the first month of life and includes detailed information about the child, the circumstances of birth and the mother. This study draws on data from the French civil register, neonatal death certificates, and mandatory 8th day health certificates to analyze and decompose neonatal mortality trends in France since 2010 by key medical and demographic characteristics. This paper aims to identify the factors behind the recent rise in neonatal mortality by disentangling the contribution of changes in the distribution of births, such as shifts in maternal age, nationality and prematurity, from changes in mortality risks within these groups. Neonatal mortality remains a major obstacle to reducing overall infant mortality in France, making this analysis one of the potential tools for developing targeted interventions.

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 Presented in Session 3. Flash Session Mortality Levels and Trends