How Social Network Structures Modify the U-Shaped Gender Equity–Fertility Relationship

Haohao Lei , University of Oxford

Demographic research has long debated the relationship between gender equity and fertility. Early theories posited that improvements in women’s education and labour market participation would lower fertility, whereas more recent scholarship suggests a U-shaped association: fertility declines initially but rises again at advanced levels of gender equity. Yet, empirical evidence remains inconsistent across countries. This research note examines the micro–macro aggregation dynamics that may account for such divergence. Using an agent-based model of 100,000 agents, I simulate how fertility intentions—modelled as U-shaped with respect to gender equity—translate into macro-level fertility outcomes under different partner-matching scenarios. Findings reveal that while individual-level intentions follow a U-shaped curve, social network structures can transform this relationship into alternative patterns, including W-shaped trajectories. These results indicate that mismatches in gender-egalitarian attitudes within couples, and their distribution across networks, can suppress fertility outcomes and help explain cross-national variation, including the Nordic fertility paradox. The study highlights the need to treat fertility as a relational process shaped by negotiation within couples and embedded in broader social structures. It further argues that the effectiveness of gender equity–based fertility policies may depend on the clustering of values within populations. By foregrounding the aggregation process, this research advances a more nuanced understanding of the gender equity–fertility nexus and calls for greater empirical attention to couple-level intentions and social network dynamics.

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 Presented in Session P2. Families, Fertility, and the Life Course 2