Modelling Partnership, Fertility and Employment Changes among Individuals with a Migrant Family Background: A Multistate Microsimulation Approach

Hill Kulu , University of St Andrews
Sarah Christison, University of St Andrews
Andrew Ibbetson, UCL
Julia Mikolai, University of St Andrews

This study investigates partnership, fertility and employment trajectories among individuals with a migrant family background in the UK. We use multistate models and microsimulation to estimate transition rates, visualise the life courses of individuals and calculate time they spend in different states during their lives. Our analysis shows that, first, there is significant heterogeneity in the life course trajectories among migrants who arrived as children. Second, we observe a generational shift: patterns among the descendants of migrants are more similar to the native population than those of migrants. Third, there are significant gender differences in employment patterns: women are more likely to be inactive than men, although the gender gap varies across the groups – the gap is large among the population of South Asian origin and non-existent among people of Caribbean descent.

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 Presented in Session P4. Migration, Migrants, and Mobility